Last week’s blog was entitled: “O’Leary isn’t Trump” and I linked to an interview I did for Poletical. I briefly made the case that I didn’t think Kevin O’Leary could win government as leader of the Conservative Party of Canada. Some disagreed with me so here’s a more complete list of the reasons I believe O’Leary would be a loser.
To begin; it doesn’t matter who wins the leadership of the Conservative Party of Canada. What matters is; “Can that person beat Justin Trudeau?”
Second. In a year when the voter’s mood was decidedly anti-establishment, the Democrats handed a gift to the Republicans by running a reckless, untruthful, unlikable, “establishment in a pantsuit” candidate, named Hillary Clinton. In spite of all that, Donald Trump lost the popular vote, by nearly 3 million votes.
Do you honestly believe that if the Democrats had run a more likable candidate, Donald Trump would be President? I certainly don’t. In fact, the Trump team must now assume that the Democrats will regain their senses and choose a more appealing candidate for the next presidential election, and so, govern themselves accordingly.
Third. The Democratic/Republican vote split in the United States is generally in the 48 to 53 percent range, give or take. Canada’s left-wing parties; the Liberals and NDP, consistently take 60 to 65, or even up to 70 percent of the vote, with the Conservatives taking what’s left.
The Conservatives always need to round up every available vote to win a majority.
Which brings us to Fourth. Québec, and parts of New Brunswick and Ontario are French speaking, and have over 25% of the seats in the House of Commons. Kevin O’Leary doesn’t speak French. You can write off a whack of seats right there.
And Fifth. O’Leary might have a Canadian passport, but for practical purposes, he lives in Boston. Now if I remember correctly, in 2011 the Liberals were desperate to return from political exile so they imported a visitor from Boston named Michael Ignatieff. How’d that work out? And yet some Conservatives are now suggesting that they want to try a visitor from Boston. Really?
And Finally, Arlene Dixon, who was O’Leary’s colleague on Dragon’s Den, describes Kevin O’Leary as a “narcissistic, opportunistic, self-promoter who lacks empathy”. Do you really think that’s going to sell?
You might be totally convinced that there’s a VACANCY sign behind that sunny smile of Justin Trudeau’s, but the fact is that that sunny smile is the first thing many people see. In fact, that sunny smile is the only thing a lot of people see.
So unless Conservatives want to lose, I’d suggest that they might not want to run Kevin O’Leary’s sneer against that.
And that’s my perspective.
Best to each of you!
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