In previous blogs, I’ve mentioned the Economic Education Association conference held in Red Deer earlier in November. We were there, and the lineup of thoughtful and knowledgeable speakers was the most impressive of any conference that we’ve ever attended.
I’m going to blog about several presentations over the next few weeks, and months, but I think that the one by Marco Navarro-Genie of Haultain Research laid out the prior conditions that we must create before we are ready to have a referendum on Alberta separation.
For those of us that are determined that our children and grandchildren and great-grandchildren will have the best possible future, whether within a massively revised Canada, or in the new nation of Alberta, we need to think about these carefully. We’re not going anywhere unless we coalesce around a central idea of what Alberta independence would look like, and, in order to get there, we’re going to need to fully understand the scope and duration of the task ahead.
Here are the conditions that existed before the 1995 Québec referendum as Navarro-Genie outlined them.
- “Have the Support of the Premier”. We do not. If Jason Kenney is being forthright, he’s said unequivocally that he is now and forevermore a Federalist. He might change his stance at sometime in the future, but I doubt it. Therefore, a separatist party must find a leader that can beat Jason Kenney in the next, or subsequent election, and be ahead of him by enough that it doesn’t allow another four years of NDP chaos. We’re not even close.
- Have control of the legislature and institutions. Next election is 3 ½ years from now, so realistically we are looking at least 7 ½ years.
- Have informal institutions, like support groups etc.. A long way to go.
- Have the support of business, labour and professional organizations. Long way to go.
- Ottawa Representatives. We need a separatist party with a federal wing with members in Parliament. Not even close.
- We need steady and strong support of the population. But committed separatists are currently at about 35%. Long way to go.
- Support or media neutrality. Ha ha ha ha! And we never will. We’ll have to work around that using social media. And we can.
- Indifference of the rest of Canada. Now maybe, but eight or 10 years from now when they realize that we’re serious? They’ll rag the puck on every issue and Supreme Court us to death. And of course, lie about us 24/7. By that time, we need to be strong and independent enough to walk out unilaterally.
- Weak Prime Minister and central government. Yes! Finally, a yes. But, will we have Justin Trudeau 6 or 8 or 10 years from now? We can’t count on it.
So it seems to me that we have a big project ahead of us, and I’ve been involved in enough projects to know that the first thing you do is sit down and assemble facts. Then you think. Lots. Then you make a plan. Then you adjust your plan constantly as you go forward, and new circumstances arise. A week is a long time in politics and we’re talking about a 10 to 20-year project.
So why do it? Well, I’ve always believed that if it’s a good and thing, and if there is no intrinsic reason that it can’t be done, then it should be done. We have eight grandchildren and six bonus grandchildren and a three-year-old great-grandson named Emmett. So this project is for ours, and for yours. Maybe Emmett’s pointing to a brighter future!
I’m Dave Reesor.
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